Tuesday, February 06, 2007

The makings of a winning Fantasy Golf Team

I've thought a lot about what it takes to win in Fantasy Golf.

Here's what I've discovered.

It's a lot like trying to stick a square peg into a round hole. You see, golf is considered an "individual" sport. Pay attention as this is what I believe is a clue to Team USA's poor Ryder Cup performance.

Most people select their fantasy team based on how individual players finish in various tournaments. There's a place for that... but fantasy team selection has to include much more than the simple finish. It really is about "how they play the game" in addition to whether or not they win.

Let me explain.

My first priority is to select players who make the cut. After all, if you have to quit half way through the tournament, then you're of no value. So, I tend to pay close attention to two things... how are they playing now? That is, are they making the cuts or are they going home?

Secondly I look at their history in past tournaments. Some tournaments don't yield the desired results. While I admire the player who continues to return with the "I'll conquer this course yet" attitude, I'm not likely to consider that player on my team for that week. A history of success is a better indicator of points than desire for success.

For example, a few tournaments are played on multiple courses as opposed to a single course. Like the FBR Open, some are "noisier" than others. The environment has a lot to do with how a player will play. Oh, and don't forget the weather... some folks just hate to play in the rain. Often it has more to do with the delays than with the weather, as they're unable to get into a routine.

Few players play in most tournaments. That means with a full roster of 12 players, I may have a handful who are not playing... or worse, I may have only a handful who are playing, limiting my options.

Once I see who on my roster is playing in a particular tournament, I begin selecting based on point needs to improve my overall standings.

This week it's real obvious. I'm dead last in driving % accuracy. Oh yeah, I've had a bunch of long hitters... but they're not playing in the really nice short green grass on their second shots.

My team driving % accuracy is a mere 55.00% with the next team up the ladder having a 55.57%.

Here's my solution.

Greg Owens was part of my original draft. He's either not played or missed the cut each time I've made him a starter. While he has a nice high driving accuracy %, he hasn't played on the weekend for me. Needless to say, he's been replaced.

I have replaced him with Ryuji Imada who has made three out of four cuts, and placed in the top 20 in all three. While his driving accuracy is not as high as I'd like, his "all around" ranking is 14th.

Jose Maria Olazabal has yet to provide really solid play for me. His driving accuracy is below my team average. His "all around" ranking is very low at 134th on the tour.

I added Paul Goydos, as he is returning to play in the USA. With an accuracy of 64.00% he should provide points. While he did miss the cut last year at the AT&T Pebble Beach, he did very well in 2005. Looking back at the two years, his stats this year are more reflective of 2005. The weather shouldn't be much of an issue, so I expect him to play all four rounds. This year's all around ranking is 38th.

I've removed John Daly as he has the worst accuracy record. I dearly love his long drives, but wild play and missed cuts don't help my team.

I have replaced John with Craig Kanada, who was cut from another team last week. His driving accuracy is 60.22% and he has an all around ranking of 22nd. While he may not have a stellar PGA record, having toiled for years on the Nationwide Tour, he appears ready this year, having made three straight cuts.

So, what does my team look like this week?

The only one I've not mentioned is rookie Brandt Snedeker, who continues to play very well. His driving accuracy is 57.42% and his all around is 68th.

Now, who's on my roster and entered in the AT&T that I'm not playing?

Brett Quigly is sitting this one out as his driving accuracy is way below average and he has an all around average rank of 117th.

Bo Van Pelt is also riding the bench. Again, his driving accuracy is way below average and his all around rank is 90th.

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