Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Here we go... the Florida Golf Swing

With a whole new location, this should be a very interesting week.

My "franchise players" are sitting out. Stuart Appleby made an early exit at the Accenture WGC Match Play Tournament, while Geoff Ogilvy battled both the elements and some very worthy opponents before losing in a playoff to Henrik Stenson.

This week, I'm concentrating on lowering my putting average. Most of my stats are "safe" from erosion, so time to bring up the point level... after all, I'm only .003 behind the next point break.

My team is a mix between some "young guns" and some veterans. All have proven their worth on the Nationwide tour or have spent years toiling in the shadows of Tiger and others.

Heath Slocum is having a breakout year. So far this year, he's played in four tournaments and has finish no lower than 44th and has two "top 10" finishes. He's also ranked 10th in putting stats.

Ryuji Imada is consistently making it to the weekend. While he doesn't have stellar stats, having him play all four rounds is most important.

Craig Kanada is also doing well each tournament, and has a very good putting average. He's made the cut in all five tournaments and has had top 25 finishes in 3, missing the other two by just a couple of spots.

Doug LaBelle's length helps me defend the driving points. I also expect his putting average will improve as we make the Florida swing.

At this time, I'm in first place by 4 points and feel that with solid play, I can maintain points while hopefully picking up points in the putting stats.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

The Golf Channel discovers "Fantasy Golf"

PGA Tour Insider has just featured a whole segment on "PGA Tour Fantasy Golf". They're calling it the "craze of the season", building on the success of other fantasy games.

I've been playing Fantasy Golf since Yahoo and CBS teamed up a few years ago.

Thankfully, refinements have dramatically improved the game. For me, the biggest improvement was the establishment of leagues, so you could compete within a smaller group, and not be exposed to some the real "idiots" in the forums.

If there is one aspect I've never enjoyed about fantasy golf, it has been the attitude and activities of some of the forum posters in years past.

I currently specialize in the "roto" play rather than the head-to-head competition. Perhaps next year I'll attempt to manage two teams... or then again, I may be way too busy here on the farm to take on the extra work.

Monday, February 19, 2007

Thanks to Charles Howell III

My strategy paid off... and boy was I ever glad.

I selected my team early in the week and then lost Internet connection until after the Nissan Open had started. Now, normally, I check in again on Wednesday evening to see who changed their mind. This time I couldn't, and thankfully all my team played.

I had Stuart Appleby, Charles Howell III, Ryuji Imada, and Geoff Ogilvy playing this week. I was torn about maybe playing Brett Quigly, but because I lost connection, the decision was made for me.

Thanks to Charles Howell III defeating Phil Mickleson in a 3-hole playoff, I regained the top points in the FedEx Cup.

For the week, I gave up progress on driving accuracy in favor of drives over 300-yds.

Looks like I need to find some decent putters as I'm still falling behind in that stat. Maybe as we move from Po 'Anna to the Bermuda things will change.

Next post I'll talk about this week's lineup... that's if it really happens. As of this afternoon, the PGA Tour Fantasy page wasn't showing that we're playing this week.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Yahoo! I made my goals...

Goal #1 was to have four players playing still in round #4. Goal #2 was to take over first place in my Fantansy League. Goal #3 was to radically improve my team's driving accuracy stats.

All four of my team members made it through to the final day. Greg Kanada faded slightly, but finished first on my team. Doug LaBelle was a pleasant surprise as he played better on the weekend. Paul Goydos worried me for a while, but pulled through at the end, and Brandt Snedeker held up quite well under all the pressure, and with the very nasty weather on Saturday.

I am now in first place by 4 points. Later I'll reveal my plan to stay there.

My team's driving average improved to the point of earning me four points rather than one.

In all, I am very pleased with how a group of "journeymen and rookies" played over the weekend.

Next post I'll discuss my strategies for the Nissan Open and reveal my team.

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Bulletin! Always return and check your team...

Good thing I make it a habit of checking the final field for a tournament.

This morning I discovered Ryuji Imada has chosen not to play this week. You see, final commitments aren't made until about 48 hours before tournament start time.

Doug LaBelle II is now on my team. There's something about this years rookies... they're much more seasoned, some having toiled for years on the Nationwide Tour, which is not cakewalk. I released Bo Van Pelt even though he has a higher "all around" than Brett Quigly.

Why would I do that? Well, Brett has demonstrated that he can play, and he also has made statements this year about wanting to win, rather than just place. I've not heard from Bo on the subject.

I know y'all think I'm crazy to sit Brett down this week, since he's made statements about how much he loves Pebble, and how he's made the cuts a couple of times, I believe he's still having issues with staying "in the moment" and not being too hard on himself.

So, what do LaBelle's stats look like? He has a 60.48% driving accuracy and is ranked 55th in all around stats. He also has a very good putting stat, and that is critical at Pebble Beach, as it is one of the most difficult courses for making putts.

One other thing, I said weather shouldn't be much of an issue... Wrong, it is expected to be rainy and probably windy, too. The good news is that it's been dry for a while, so maybe it will remain quite playable.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

The makings of a winning Fantasy Golf Team

I've thought a lot about what it takes to win in Fantasy Golf.

Here's what I've discovered.

It's a lot like trying to stick a square peg into a round hole. You see, golf is considered an "individual" sport. Pay attention as this is what I believe is a clue to Team USA's poor Ryder Cup performance.

Most people select their fantasy team based on how individual players finish in various tournaments. There's a place for that... but fantasy team selection has to include much more than the simple finish. It really is about "how they play the game" in addition to whether or not they win.

Let me explain.

My first priority is to select players who make the cut. After all, if you have to quit half way through the tournament, then you're of no value. So, I tend to pay close attention to two things... how are they playing now? That is, are they making the cuts or are they going home?

Secondly I look at their history in past tournaments. Some tournaments don't yield the desired results. While I admire the player who continues to return with the "I'll conquer this course yet" attitude, I'm not likely to consider that player on my team for that week. A history of success is a better indicator of points than desire for success.

For example, a few tournaments are played on multiple courses as opposed to a single course. Like the FBR Open, some are "noisier" than others. The environment has a lot to do with how a player will play. Oh, and don't forget the weather... some folks just hate to play in the rain. Often it has more to do with the delays than with the weather, as they're unable to get into a routine.

Few players play in most tournaments. That means with a full roster of 12 players, I may have a handful who are not playing... or worse, I may have only a handful who are playing, limiting my options.

Once I see who on my roster is playing in a particular tournament, I begin selecting based on point needs to improve my overall standings.

This week it's real obvious. I'm dead last in driving % accuracy. Oh yeah, I've had a bunch of long hitters... but they're not playing in the really nice short green grass on their second shots.

My team driving % accuracy is a mere 55.00% with the next team up the ladder having a 55.57%.

Here's my solution.

Greg Owens was part of my original draft. He's either not played or missed the cut each time I've made him a starter. While he has a nice high driving accuracy %, he hasn't played on the weekend for me. Needless to say, he's been replaced.

I have replaced him with Ryuji Imada who has made three out of four cuts, and placed in the top 20 in all three. While his driving accuracy is not as high as I'd like, his "all around" ranking is 14th.

Jose Maria Olazabal has yet to provide really solid play for me. His driving accuracy is below my team average. His "all around" ranking is very low at 134th on the tour.

I added Paul Goydos, as he is returning to play in the USA. With an accuracy of 64.00% he should provide points. While he did miss the cut last year at the AT&T Pebble Beach, he did very well in 2005. Looking back at the two years, his stats this year are more reflective of 2005. The weather shouldn't be much of an issue, so I expect him to play all four rounds. This year's all around ranking is 38th.

I've removed John Daly as he has the worst accuracy record. I dearly love his long drives, but wild play and missed cuts don't help my team.

I have replaced John with Craig Kanada, who was cut from another team last week. His driving accuracy is 60.22% and he has an all around ranking of 22nd. While he may not have a stellar PGA record, having toiled for years on the Nationwide Tour, he appears ready this year, having made three straight cuts.

So, what does my team look like this week?

The only one I've not mentioned is rookie Brandt Snedeker, who continues to play very well. His driving accuracy is 57.42% and his all around is 68th.

Now, who's on my roster and entered in the AT&T that I'm not playing?

Brett Quigly is sitting this one out as his driving accuracy is way below average and he has an all around average rank of 117th.

Bo Van Pelt is also riding the bench. Again, his driving accuracy is way below average and his all around rank is 90th.

Congratulations to Heath Slocum!

Heath, you didn't get near the recognition you deserved for your hole-in-one at the fourth hole of the FBR Open. It was especially sweet to see it occur in the fourth round with the raucous crowd.

I played Heath Slocum, Brandt Snedeker, Charles Howell III, and Geoff Ogilvy. Everyone except Geoff made the cut. With three players playing on the weekend, I was able to move to second place, just four points out of first place in my league.

For the season-to-date, my team has earned 7 points for 300-yd drives, 1 point for driving % accuracy, 7 points for greens in regulation %, 5 points for Scrambling %, 2 points for putting average, 4 points for total stroke average, 4 points for eagles, 7 points for birdies, 5 points for sand saves, and 8 points for Fed-Ex Cup rank.

Do you see where I can improve? I sure do...

Check my next post to see what strategy I am using to improve my overall stats.

Monday, February 05, 2007

Buick Invitational and Tiger Woods is playing...

What a difference a year makes. This year someone else has the Tiger on their team. I'm really ok with that as I had him on my team last year.

There's no doubt he's the greatest golfer on the tour, but because he plays so few times a year on the PGA Tour, you have to have a very strong supporting team to take real advantage of his strengths.

This year I'll be surprised if he plays enough to have a serious impact on the fantasy game.

Made my first roster change. Dropped Ryan Palmer in favor of John Daly. While John is having to rely on sponsor's exemptions this year, he could get hot and provide welcome points in the driving distance as well as short game (100 yds). Then again, he could blow up and be of little value. I'll keep him around for a little while.

My active players for the Buick Invitational include John Daly, Jose Maria Olazabal, Brett Quigly, and Charles Howell III.

Once again, only two of the four made it to the weekend.

The guys with the most experience, Daly and Olazabal didn't make the cut leaving just Howell and Quigly to do battle with Tiger Woods.

Howell gave his all and provided a lot of points as Quigly sort of faded. That's ok, he provided much needed points throughout the four days.

By tournament end, I had climbed to fourth position overall and felt ready to make a charge to the top.

Week 2... the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

This is an interesting tournament in that it's played over several courses, each with it's own personality.

This week I didn't have a lot of choices and wasn't prepared yet to execute trades, or drop players and sign free agents.

My team consisted of Charles Howell III, Ryan Palmer, Carl Pettersson, and Heath Slocum. Unfortunately, goal 1... have more than 2 players make the cut wasn't achieved.

For the time they played, however, they did generate sufficient points to move me up the board a bit. When it was all said and done, I was in 5th place still, but only 19.5 points out of first having come in third for the week.

This is better, but my goal is to win this league. To do that I have to assemble a team of players who make the cut, and play to their strengths while supporting the best they can in areas where they are challenged.

Time for a recap of my first week

Ok, so it's been a few weeks since I last posted. I've really been busy with web design and a new site for some folks.

Let's look at week one... how I fared and what I did to prepare for the next week.

This was the Sony Open in Hawaii.

I played Stuart Appleby, Geoff Ogilvy, Carl Pettersson, and Brett Quigly.

Only Ogilvy and Quigly made the cut, and while they did provide me good points, the best I could muster was an overall 5th position and 26 points out of first.

My team generated 5 points for 300-yd drives, 3 points for driving % accuracy, and 2.5 points greens in regulation. We got 4 points for scrambling, 6 points for a good putting average, but only 2 points for stroke score average. Finishing the stats, we tied at dead last with 2 points for no eagles, 5 points for birdies, 5.5 points for sand saves, and 5 points for the FedEx Cup total points.

As you can see, I have my work cut out for me... First goal have more than 2 players still playing after the cut.